Will steel exports increase in the near future

In February, the logistics transportation of China’s steel industry was blocked, and the transportation cost rose sharply. The steel export port clearance was seriously affected, which made the backlog of steel export orders in the early stage prominent. Since March, with the resumption of work and production of solar greenhouse in all industries in China, logistics smooth recovery, China’s steel export shows a growing trend. At present, the impact of the epidemic on the global economy is gradually emerging. The United Nations said that the global economy could contract by nearly 1 percent this year because of novel coronavirus, a sharp reversal from its precovid-19 growth forecast of 2.5 percent. Global GDP would grow by minus 3% in 2020, the worst recession since the great depression of the 1930s, compared with a previous forecast of 3.3%. The global economic downturn will have a serious constraint on demand and consumption of aluminium curtain wall, the global steel industry has a huge impact.

At present, steel enterprises in many countries and regions around the world have taken measures to stop production cuts to cope with the downward pressure of downstream demand. Steel mills in Brazil have shut down blast furnaces and some plants in Asia, including Japan and India, have shut down production. Japan’s crude steel output in the second quarter of this year will plunge 26 per cent to 19.6m tones, the lowest level since the same period in 2009, and 18 per cent lower than the 23.6m tonnes in the first quarter, according to new forecasts released by the ministry of economy. However, the capacity utilization rate of the plastic greenhouse declined slowly in March and fell sharply in April. It dropped to 56.1% last week, the lowest level since September 2009.
In Europe, 18 per cent of steel consumption in cars has been out of production for more than 20 days, and the industry is struggling with sharp production cuts, plant closures, shorter working hours and even job losses. Recently, someone asked the European commission to immediately review the existing trade safeguard measures, proposing to reduce the steel import quota by 75% within six months, so that the steel industry can cope with the current difficult situation. For imports in excess of the quota, the greenhouse rate may be reduced to less than 25 per cent. However, it also recommended the imposition of restrictions on steel imports related to the crisis and safety. In the later stage, it is necessary to guard against the risk of escalation of steel import restriction measures and trade friction.