What about the winter market

First, the winter storage policy of round steel pipe is not attractive. Recently, steel mills have successively released winter storage policy, in addition to steel mills “when the rise does not rise, when the fall is down” winter storage principle attracted some attention, most of the psychological expectations of the market and there is a certain gap. Second, there is still a gap in market prices. Last year 3800-4000 yuan winter storage did not earn money, this year’s market psychological price is more inclined to 3500-3700 yuan or so, except for some speculative demand in Beijing area, most other areas have not found obvious entry operation, the general enthusiasm is not very big.

Third, from the point of view of supply and demand, the output of steel pipe suppliers has a certain range of decline under the impact of environmental production limit at the end of the year, but it does not mean that the later period will not increase, and the current long process steel mills still have a large range of profit space, short process steel mills have not yet to the cost line, it is unlikely to rely on the initiative of steel mills to reduce production.However, considering the New Year ahead, steel mills will not be very willing to significantly increase production, steel output may not be as obvious as expected. From the demand side, the northern market has entered the winter rest period recently, and the southern market demand is also showing signs of gradually weakening. If the later output of mild steel tube and the market barrier velocity change little, the pressure of supply and demand will be small, and the winter storage market is difficult to fully start and trigger. The velocity of the barrier is the focus.

What’s more, from the perspective of the current basis difference, with the recent continuous adjustment, the discount has been a larger repair, although there is still some room, the overall view is not very big.With the approaching of the delivery date of 01 contract, the current market of square steel pipe is not particularly large under the multi-empty entanglement, up or down space is not very large. On the other hand, if the winter storage demand is not fully triggered, it is difficult to make a breakthrough in the market due to the seasonal market demand. At present, whether it is a positive deduction, or a backward push, the market is more inclined to narrow range of shocks to weaken.