Steel prices were affected

China’s steel industry of structural steel pipe accounts for about 15% of the country’s carbon dioxide emissions and more than 60% of the global steel industry’s carbon emissions. It can be seen that the low-carbon transformation of the iron and steel industry is very important for China to achieve the “double carbon” goal, and promoting the carbon peak of the iron and steel industry is one of the ten “carbon peak” actions. “Double carbon target” from the supply side to the steel industry injected a lot of action.

The rise from March to May in the first half of last year, the iron and steel industry carbon peak expectation interpretation incisively and vividly, thread increase up to 40%, this increase ratio, and the thread increase during the supply side reform from 2016 to 2019 is comparable. If the real estate does not decline, we can regard the carbon peak of the steel industry as the 2.0 version of the supply-side reform, and it is expected that the price center of the thread will also operate in the range of 4450-5700. However, in the face of the new change of the real estate decline, it is not allowed to copy the price increase of mild steel tube during the supply-side reform. For the future, the control of the production end may only hedge the downward demand. So that the iron and steel enterprises will not large losses, 2012-2015 business tragedy, thread price center or will maintain interval operation.

On February 7, 2022, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment jointly issued a guideline, proposing that the steel industry “ensure the carbon peak before 2030”. The target is five years later than a previous draft for public comment. This marginal change in the pace of carbon control weakened the steel industry production limit expectations of rectangular hollow section.

This year will hold the Party of the twentieth Congress, which is a major event in the political life of the party and the state, the need to maintain a stable and healthy economic environment, the steel industry scale accounts for more than 5% of GDP, is a more important industrial production sector, economic downward pressure increases, “six guarantee six stability” become the policy focus, there is no need to be too bearish output reduction in energy consumption indicators. The demand end is usually difficult to grasp, and the key point of starting will be in the next two weeks. Through investigation and investigation, we have learned that there is basically no shortage of projects, and some regions have reported that lack of funds is a drag on the project progress, but the degree of funding shortage is better than last year. We have noticed that demand of black iron steel pipe is greatly affected by price, and the downstream funds exceed the budget because the price is too high, so the high price restrains demand, while the falling price, although conducive to stimulating demand, is in the declining price channel.