Recent steel market trend

Nowadays, the construction steel market “weak in the north and strong in the south” situation is increasingly prominent, and the construction steel price also presents the characteristics of “high in the south and low in the north”. Therefore, under the situation that the demand strength of welded steel pipe in the northern region is weakening gradually, the northern resources will speed up the flow to the south. According to research, in December last year, the North steel rebar southbound resources plan to reach 1.9 million tons, basically flat with the same period last year; The southbound resources of coils and wires are planned to reach about 760,000 tons, an increase of about 20,000 tons year-on-year. This batch of northern resources to the south, will have an impact on the southern construction steel market supply.

The second is the process and scale of winter storage. According to research, this year’s winter storage scale and last year’s roughly equal, winter reserves or not more than last year. According to steel traders, this year’s China steel tube manufacturers on the winter storage mostly more rational, do not regard winter storage as an opportunity to Bo market. This largely determines that the scale of this year’s winter storage will not be too large. Steel traders believe that this year’s winter storage of late construction steel market limited impact.

Third, there is uncertainty about whether the “weak supply and demand” pattern of the market will change. With the increasing impact of cold weather around the country, the strength of “steel demand” will be weaker and weaker, and it is difficult to significantly improve the strength of effective demand in the construction steel market. Moreover, many steel companies are currently undergoing year-end maintenance. According to incomplete statistics, nearly 40 steel enterprises have issued overhaul plans. For example, some high-line production lines of steel enterprises have stopped production for overhaul since November 29 this year, and the time to resume production of rectangular hollow section is yet to be determined. Steel traders are expected to recent construction steel production “easy to reduce difficult to increase”.

At present, the construction steel market inventory continues to decline. In the total steel inventory of 35 major markets in China, the total steel inventory of rebar as well as black iron steel pipe was 3,641,400 tons, down by 271,600 tons week on week, down by 6.94%; The total inventory of wire and coil screw was 1,108,900 tons, which decreased by 107,200 tons week on week, down by 9.67%. Although the recent construction steel market supply weak pattern is difficult to change, but there is uncertainty in the release of downstream demand.