market operation of steel rebar

At the demand end, since May this year, the downstream indicators including excavator sales, cement production, railway and highway fixed assets investment all showed negative growth. The construction steel transaction was also significantly lower than the level of the same period in previous years, and the apparent consumption growth of ERW pipe began to turn negative, reflecting the economic downturn to produce obvious pressure on steel demand. But because the third quarter of crude steel production execution is strong, the market focus around the supply side contraction of the bull logic, such as pressure production and power limit, did not pay too much attention to the weakening demand. Downward pressure on real estate investment surfaced in September as credit default risks emerged for individual property companies, raising pessimistic expectations of a precipitous fall in demand for construction steel next year.

Construction rebar steel work reinforcement in conncrete structure of building

Looking at the real estate data specifically, under the general tone of “housing and housing do not speculation”, the proportion of funds flowing to real estate is decreasing continuously. In the medium and long term, real estate financing is in the peak and fall stage. From January to October, the capital sources of real estate development increased by 8.8%, the previous value was 11.1%, among which domestic loans, self-raised funds and other sources of funds continued to decline, the biggest decline is the deposit and advance and personal mortgage loans, which can also be verified from the sales data: From January to October, the area of commercial cold rolled steel pipe sales increased by 7.3%, down by 4.0 percentage points. The growth rate of this month has been negativing for four consecutive months, in which the growth of forward housing sales is the biggest drag, and the forward housing sales is the main source of commercial housing sales and withdrawal funds of real estate enterprises. Therefore, front-end financing is difficult to stack up, sales collection is slow, real estate investment downward pressure is obvious, the growth rate of the whole year fell unilaterally, the growth rate of the month for two consecutive months is negative, later still need to pay attention to the residents’ intention to buy a house, real estate sales performance and steel pipe manufacturers to start progress and other indicators.

In general, the logic of downward demand and cost collapse of rebar steel has been fully reflected on the disk surface. Although the negative feedback of the industrial chain is still continuing, the loss scope of upstream coal coking enterprises is expanding, and the subsequent unilateral price decline trend will be moderated. Under the support of supply tightening and policy easing, the hot rolled steel pipe price continues to fall little space, the trend of the disk will enter the oscillation bottom stage, unilateral drive is not strong.