Limit production and demand

Scrap supply cannot be artificially accelerated, should be natural growth trend. Steel industry can achieve carbon peak key is to see whether the demand of round steel tube for sale can peak, then, for the future crude steel total demand judgment is very important. From the perspective of international comparison, the growth rate of total crude steel demand is highly correlated with the urbanization rate. From the perspective of the United States, Japan, Germany and France, which are several comparable large countries, the crude steel demand in these countries reaches the peak when the urbanization rate reaches about 72%-75%, and then peaks and falls or enters a high platform. China’s urbanization rate has just exceeded 60%. From the perspective of internationally comparable experience, there is still room for incremental demand for crude steel. According to the average annual urbanization rate growth of 1%, the demand for crude steel may even remain incremental in the next ten years. In the decade before the crude steel demand of the developed countries peaked, the composite growth rate of the crude steel demand of the United States, Japan, Germany and France was 3.3%, 14.2%, 2.5% and 3.2% respectively. Excluding the relatively special situation of Japan, in several other countries, square steel pipe demand can maintain a compound growth rate of 2% to 3% on average before peaking.

In the past many years, relevant institutions have repeatedly misjudged the demand for crude steel “peaking”. One of the very important reasons is to apply the experience of developed countries in the demand for crude steel of 600 kg per capita. However, many factors make the demand for crude steel in China continue to increase. On the one hand, China is an unprecedented manufacturing power in the world, and the epidemic has aggravated China’s status as a global manufacturing power. Although globalization has peaked, there may be a trend of anti-globalization in the future, which will be disadvantageous to the position of China’s manufacturing industry in the long run. However, the global end of the epidemic is far from in sight. In the short and medium term, China’s position as a manufacturing center has strengthened, which will help stabilize China hollow section demand. On the other hand, although the demand for real estate may enter the peak area, the decline may be relatively slow, mainly because of the huge replacement demand. Moreover, the traditional concept of hometown of Chinese people makes many families have the demand for real estate in both urban and rural areas, which also contributes to the relatively stable demand for real estate in China.

Therefore, according to the experience of developed countries’ per capita crude steel demand of 600 kg, it is not applicable to China. China’s mild steel tube demand is difficult to peak in the short term. The National Development and Reform Commission also said that China’s demand for crude steel will have a certain room to rise before the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan.