Downstream demand exceeds expectations

Downstream demand exceeds expectations, steel inventory accelerated to go. Last week, social inventory of the five major types of steel products such as hydroponics green house decreased by 1.0631 million tons, a decrease of 232,500 tons compared with last week. In combination with the production situation, the demand for steel products in the downstream exceeded expectations, and the social inventory of steel products was maintained at a high speed. Inventories of the five major steel mills fell by 759,400 tons, an increase of 97,800 tons last week on a month-on-month basis. Last week to April 9, the daily average volume of building materials was 231,700 tons, up from the average volume of last week of 50,400 tons.

We estimated the apparent consumption of glasses greenhouse last week at 11.6557 million tons, a record high since 2016, among which the apparent consumption of rebar was 4.440100 million tons, a new high for a single week since 2016. In terms of apparent consumption, the downstream demand is strong at present. We believe that with the continuous recovery of the downstream demand, the steel inventory will continue to go. Hot coil output low rise, rebar steel output returned to the average water product in previous years. Last week, the output of the five types of single span greenhouse totaled 9.83 million tons, up 467,700 tons from the previous week, and the steel output continued to rise. However, last week’s steel output was 94,300 tons lower than the average output of the same period in the four years from 2016 to 2019, and the steel output basically returned to the average level of previous years.
According to the varieties, the hot coil due to the end of the steel enterprises overhaul, last week’s weekly output of 3.1004 million tons, up 1358 million tons, but still in the same period in the past year absolute low; Rebar output returned to the average level of previous years. Last week, due to the decline of scrap steel prices, electric furnace operating rate rose rapidly in the case of improved profits, the expected output of electric furnace continues to release less flexibility, steel production is difficult to continue to rise. We believe that the steel plate has entered an important strategic allocation period. We are relatively optimistic that after this outbreak, on the one hand, the demand side’s demand cycle in the next two to three years may change due to real estate and infrastructure. At the same time, in the medium and long term, the industrial pattern is improving, the concentration ratio is improving, leading bargaining power is improving, and the competitive pattern of curtain wall building is being optimized. Steel plate is in low expectations, low valuation stage. At the same time, with the unsealing of Hubei province, especially Wuhan city, the centralized resumption of work and urgent demand will continue to push up the demand.