Analysis of domestic steel market situation in 2020

The year 2020 is the final year of China’s 13th five-year plan, the decisive year for completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects, and the year after the three major battles. In 2020, when the external environment is uncertain, it is particularly important to maintain domestic economic and social development and stability of mild steel tube. The central economic meeting held in December continued to mention that we should comprehensively improve the “six stability” work and keep the economy operating within a reasonable range. Among them, “stability” is manifested in three aspects: steady growth, increasing the scale of special bond issuance, and continuing to cut taxes and fees. The focus of stabilizing growth is to stabilize infrastructure construction. The state council has introduced a series of measures to stabilize infrastructure construction. In terms of supporting funds, policy Banks have stepped up investment loans for infrastructure construction. Steel pipe suppliers will encourage local governments to stabilize infrastructure construction. China’s economy is expected to grow about 6.2% in 2019 and 6.0% in 2020, down slightly from this year.

The resilience of real estate continued to exceed market expectations in 2019, with investment in real estate development maintaining a high double-digit growth rate. At the beginning of the year, the growth rate of real estate development investment reached a five-year high of 11.9% in January-April, driven by the two-way development of new construction area and construction area. After that, the investment in real estate development increased by 10.2% year on year from January to November, 0.1 percentage point lower than that from January to October.In terms of each sub-index, the accumulative year-on-year growth rate of housing newly started area in 2019 has slowed down, reaching 13.1% in January-April, and then pipe black steel is gradually dropping down.

The accumulative year-on-year growth rate dropped to 8.6% in January-November, down 2.88% in the same month, which is the first negative growth in the same month since November 2017. In 2019, the accumulative year-on-year growth rate of housing construction area in the whole year maintained a high growth trend. From January to November, the accumulative year-on-year growth rate of housing construction area reached 8.7%. The monthly year-on-year growth rate of housing construction area reached 68.33% in March, and the monthly year-on-year growth rate of housing construction area also maintained above 20% in April and October, far exceeding the market expectation. In 2019, the accumulative year-on-year growth rate of structural steel pipe maintained a negative growth trend, and the accumulative year-on-year decline reached 34.1% in January-February, and then narrowed by shock, and the accumulative year-on-year decline narrowed to 14.2% in January-November.