Technological revolution in steel industry

The consumption of crude steel per capita in typical developed countries in the world, after reaching the peak, enters the decline stage, and our country will follow the same development law. After 2025, China will basically step into the late stage of industrialization, combined with China’s per capita crude steel consumption level, industrial structure, export structure, industrialization process and urbanization process of welded steel pipe, as well as “carbon peak, carbon neutral” constraints. At the same time, considering that China will basically realize socialist modernization in 2035, China’s steel demand will show a slow decline in the long term.

After stepping into the late industrialization, because the urbanization still continues, the demand for Chinese steel will not fall rapidly. In the next few years, GDP, fixed asset investment, industrialization, urbanization and other factors will still exert a significant pull on the demand for crude steel, and the demand for hot rolled steel pipe will be maintained at a high level. However, multiple strong constraints such as carbon emissions, environmental energy, resource security and industrial policies will form bottleneck constraints, and the constraints are becoming more rigid, superimposed on the import and export of steel tax rebates, reducing crude steel production and other national macro-policy control impact, it is expected that China’s crude steel production fluctuates around 1 billion tons.

No new production capacity is the “bottom line” and “red line”. Consolidating the achievements of reducing production capacity is still one of the key tasks of the steel industry in the future, and the “double control” of production capacity and output may become a normal policy. China’s steel industry strongly supports the high-quality development of the national economy and manufacturing industry. Under the “double carbon” target, the steel industry as a key industry should bear the brunt of carbon reduction. To effectively implement the “double carbon” goal, we should pay attention to three key issues: first, carbon reduction of hot dipped galvanized steel pipe should not be carried out alone. We should proceed from our current national conditions and promote carbon reduction, pollution reduction, green enhancement and growth in a coordinated manner; Second, carbon reduction should not be “sport-like”. Traditional technologies should be replaced by green technologies. The purpose is to reduce carbon emissions of square steel pipe, not to reduce production capacity, not to slow down growth rate, and not to artificially disrupt the normal order of supply and demand in the absence of green technologies and supply. Third, the carbon reduction index cannot be misplaced, should be more economic, market-based approach.